RESEARCH PROPOSAL

Thomas W. Woolley, Jr.

Templeton Oxford Seminars on Science and Christianity

 

          Uncertainty, or chance, is unquestionably the hallmark of modern science.  Many of the most substantive scientific theoretical propositions have at their core, chance; as examples consider evolutionary biology (natural science), quantum theory (physical science) and organizational development (social science).  Although chance has attracted the attention of a number of contributors to the science and theology dialogue, to my knowledge only one has formal education in chance as a professional matter, through the study of statistics and probability theory: Dr. David Bartholomew, retired Professor of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences at the London School of Economics.  His books, "God of Chance," (SCM Press, 1984) and "Is It Rational to be a Christian?," (Oxford University Press, 1996) have been a major influence on my thinking.  Dr. Bartholomew admits, however, that many issues central to chance and theology remain to be worked through (personal communication, London School of Economics, March 9, 2001).

          Bartholomew's approach to integrating chance into Christian theology tends toward a traditional view of natural theology that often gives knowledge of God through the world primacy over revelation.  As McGrath (A Scientific Theology, Volume 1: Nature, Oxford University Press, 2001) and others have argued, a saving knowledge of God proceeds through Biblical revelation and in the person of Jesus Christ, though a deeper understanding of the nature of God may be arrived at through observation of the natural world.  In other words, the Bible is illuminated, rather than contradicted, by science.  Is there, then, an interpretation of chance that acknowledges our understanding of the world acquired through science while preserving orthodox Christian truths?

          Nearly thirty years before Bartholomew put his thoughts on paper, Oxford theologian Leonard Hodgson in his Gifford Lectures (1955-1957) stated the following: "For the rational purpose of ensuring fair play we create conditions in which decisions shall be left to chance; for the furtherance of His purpose in creation God gives to His universe a mode of reality which admits of the existence and occurrence of such irrationalities as contingency, freedom and evil" (from "For Faith and Freedom," 1968, p. 150).  What appeals to me about his theology is that it retains its orthodox elements while incorporating chance as a positive tool that can be used by God to achieve his purpose.  Clearly, Hodgson possessed insight far ahead of its time.

          Chance, though widely discussed, is a surprisingly difficult concept to pin down.  Donald McKay, in his Riddell Lectures, takes a very conservative Christian interpretation that denies the existence of pure chance ("Science, Chance and Providence," Oxford University Press, 1978; echoed by more popular accounts such as R.C. Sproul's, "Not a Chance: The Myth of Chance in Modern Science and Cosmology," Baker Books, 1994; and D.L. Overman's, "A Case Against Accident and Self-Organization," Rowman and Littlefield, 1997).  Alternatively, Arthur Peacocke espouses a liberal theological interpretation of chance viewed as a teleological tool used by God in creative processes ("Creation and the World of Science: The Bampton Lectures," Oxford University Press, 1979), though many of the foundational creedal Christian beliefs (e.g., the virgin birth, bodily resurrection) become casualties.  Going a step beyond simply ideas, William Dembski describes a process very much like statistical significance testing that he purports can eliminate the chance hypothesis leaving "intelligent design" as the most likely (probabilistically, speaking) alternative ("No Free Lunch," Rowman & Littlefield, 2002).  In light of this and more, Bartholomew has carefully argued (like Peacocke before him) that chance is not the antithesis of purpose.  The case that chance is not inherently anti-teleological has been made statistically through appeals to both stochastic processes and chaos theory, among others. Finally, Dr. John Polkinghorne describes at least five interpretations of chance that have been referenced in the science and religion dialogue (personal communication, March 16, 2001, Faculty of Divinity, University of Cambridge).  It is my belief that despite the frequency with which the concept is used in both the lay and academic literature the fundamental nature of chance remains ambiguous and needs to be critically examined. 

          The research I propose to conduct in association with the Templeton Oxford Seminars on Science and Christianity can be defined in three phases, roughly corresponding to the seminar years:

 

Phase 1:

 

Where and/or how did Hodgson's ideas about chance (those that he incorporated   into his theology) originate?  My intention will be to thoroughly research Hodgson's writings, particularly those that are among the holdings of the Oxford libraries.  The work of other contemporary theologians such as John MacQuarrie will be examined, as well.  I anticipate that this research will ultimately take the form of a summary paper or monograph and should inform the investigations of Phases 2 and 3.

 

Phase 2: 

 

What is the fundamental nature of chance?  Starting from Hodgson's concept of chance, I will thoroughly evaluate other contemporary understandings of chance from both the scientific and theological literature.  I expect that an edited book of seminal writings covering the breadth of thinking on the concept of chance will be the outcome.

 

Phase 3: 

 

Building on the work of the first two years, can Hodgson's theology be updated in light of Bartholomew's statistical and probabilistic arguments, as well as the centrality of chance in contemporary scientific thought, such that it provides the basis for a   comprehensive theology of chance?  In particular, from an orthodox theological perspective, what implications does chance (clearly defined) have for such theological issues as God's providence, foreknowledge and omnipotence?

 

Over the course of the project my desire will be to engage Dr. Bartholomew in the development and maturation of my thinking.

 

          Between McKay's premature denial of the existence of chance and Peacocke's wide-ranging acceptance of scientific knowledge over orthodox Christian revelatory truth, lies an accommodation of scientific chance within Christian theology.  I believe that Hodgson's theology may provide the necessary framework for achieving this meeting of chance and the evangelical mind.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wallpaper: Sketch of Leonard Hodgson in clerical collar by Caroline Humphreys